ESSENDON
Cross Keys has one more league night left in it, and then it has a play-off night as well.
That much is already settled. The Royals are third on 47 points from 24 games, and with fifth-placed Keilor Park only able to reach 44 and sixth-placed Box Hill 43, there is no longer a route below fourth. Third and fourth both host a play-off semi-final in September, so a home semi at Cross Keys is banked whatever happens on Friday. This is the last home game of the regular season, not the last home game of the year.
What is still live is third place itself. A win takes the Royals to 50 and confirms it, because Bayside Argonauts can also reach 50 and lose the tie-break on goal difference, +24 against +12. Two draws leaves the Royals on 49 and hands Bayside third if they win both. The reward for finishing third rather than fourth is drawing the sixth-placed side in the semi instead of the fifth.
Automatic promotion is alive on paper and almost nothing more. The Royals would have to win both, Malvern City would have to lose both, and goal difference would then decide it, with Malvern eight goals better off at +32. Malvern are at Kingston City from 7:45pm the same night, 45 minutes before Cross Keys, so a single Malvern point could close that door while the Royals are still playing.
Keilor Park arrive with their own reasons to be here. They came up as State League 1 North-West champions and sit fifth in their first VPL Men 2 season, and they need two points from their last two to be certain of a play-off place, with Whittlesea United capable of reaching 39 and holding the better goal difference. Five of the Eagles’ twelve wins have finished 1-0, at Box Hill, at Altona, at home to Eastern Lions and at home to Malvern City, which is the sort of night they know how to manufacture. Sam O’Halleron has 12 of their 33 goals, and their 33 yellow cards are the second-fewest in the division, so this is a disciplined side rather than an awkward one.
They also won the earlier meeting, 1-0 at Keilor Park Recreation Reserve on 8 May, Ryouta Yanagisono coming on at half time and finishing via a deflection eleven minutes into the second half. That is one of only two league defeats the Royals have suffered since the first of May, and the record at Cross Keys since is nine games played, nine won, 35 scored and 14 conceded.
There is one more wrinkle. If the Royals finish fourth, the semi-final is against the side in fifth, and the side in fifth is Keilor Park.
Kick-off is 8:30pm Friday at Cross Keys Reserve.